Deloitte forecasts Canadian economic growth will slow to 1.5% in 2026

Deloitte projects growth of 1.5% in 2026, down from 1.7% in 2025; chief economist Dawn Desjardins says momentum may build in the second half of the year and highlights trade and business investment as key trends.

Deloitte forecasts Canadian economic growth will slow to 1.5 per cent in 2026, down from 1.7 per cent in 2025. Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte Canada, described her outlook as cautiously optimistic. She said the economy is expected to gain momentum in the second half of 2026. Desjardins highlighted trade and business investment as the key trends to watch this year. Key facts: - Growth projection: 1.5% for 2026, versus 1.7% in 2025. - The review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) is scheduled for July and is described as pivotal, with potential changes that could restrict access to the U.S. market noted as a risk. - The federal budget includes plans to stimulate billions in private-sector investment, which Deloitte cites as an influence on business investment. - Desjardins said business investment may turn a corner if firms gain clarity and see government support, particularly in infrastructure and natural resources. - In the short term, government defence spending and assistance for sectors affected by U.S. tariffs are expected to provide support. Summary: The report signals a modest slowdown in headline growth for 2026 while noting an expected pickup in the second half of the year. Upcoming developments to watch are the USMCA review in July and federal measures outlined in the budget, whose outcomes will influence trade exposure and business investment.