RBC bank CEO conference highlights outlook for 2026

RBC Capital Markets hosted a conference of major Canadian bank CEOs who signalled relatively low loan growth for 2026 and emphasised cost control through technology and AI. Analysts also flagged margin support from higher rates and recent moves in the USD/CAD exchange rate.

RBC Capital Markets held a conference featuring major Canadian bank CEOs and market strategists provided a roundup of the sessions. Analysts reported that banks expect a relatively low loan growth environment in 2026, with some banks seeing possible improvement in the second half of the year into 2027. Bank leaders described potential revenue tailwinds from interest rates and expanding mortgage spreads while emphasising efficiency and cost control through technology and AI. The roundup also noted related market signals such as movements in the Canadian dollar and a subdued Toronto housing market. Key points: - Darko Mihelic summarised themes from the conference, reporting that banks expect relatively low loan growth in 2026 with possible improvement in H2/26 into 2027. - CEOs said they expect some support for net interest margins from higher rates, expanding mortgage spreads, improved deposit mix, and better asset yields. - Banks indicated capital deployment in the near term is likely to be organic rather than driven by acquisitions. - Several banks emphasised efficiency and cost control, including strategic investments in technology and artificial intelligence. - BofA's Howard Du noted USD/CAD moved after strong Canadian data and described the pair as close to fair value with a neutral near-term view. - BMO's Robert Kavcic reported that Toronto home sales and prices were down year-over-year in December, leaving the market subdued. Summary: The commentary points to a cautious operating environment for Canadian banks in 2026, with an emphasis on margin stability and tighter cost discipline. Currency developments, USMCA negotiations and incoming economic data were highlighted as important influences on the outlook. Undetermined at this time.