U.S. likely posted slower job growth, easing unemployment in December

Economists surveyed expect nonfarm payrolls rose by about 60,000 in December and the unemployment rate eased to roughly 4.5 percent.

U.S. job growth is expected to have slowed in December as businesses stayed cautious about hiring. Economists polled by Reuters forecast nonfarm payrolls rose by roughly 60,000 and the unemployment rate eased toward 4.5 percent. The report notes firms cited uncertainty from import tariffs and rising investment in artificial intelligence as factors holding back new hiring. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the official December employment report and related household survey revisions with that release. Reported details: - Reuters economists estimated nonfarm payrolls rose about 60,000 in December after a 64,000 gain in November and a 105,000 loss in October. - The median forecast in the poll was for the unemployment rate to ease to about 4.5 percent, while some economists saw it at 4.7 percent. - Economists described the labor market as in a "no hire, no fire" mode, with firms citing tariffs and anticipated productivity gains from AI as reasons for hiring restraint. - The BLS said it will include annual household survey revisions with the December report and will change aspects of the birth-death model starting in January; a separate payrolls benchmark revision is scheduled with the January report. Summary: The expected slowdown in payroll gains alongside a small decline in the unemployment rate could reinforce views that the Federal Reserve will pause further rate cuts for now. The next scheduled data step is the Bureau of Labor Statistics publication of the December employment report and accompanying household survey revisions; the benchmark revision is set for the January release.