U.S. attack in Venezuela shifts dynamics for guerilla groups

The Jan. 3 U.S. attack on Venezuela has prompted reported shifts in guerilla activity along the Colombia–Venezuela border; experts say the ELN has closed some camps and suspended training in Venezuela.

The Jan. 3 U.S. attack on Venezuela has altered conditions for armed groups operating along the Colombia–Venezuela border, according to local security experts. Observers report increased movement and precautionary measures by these groups. Some analysts warn this has raised concerns about possible betrayals by Venezuelan regime officials and the risk of a broader confrontation if foreign ground forces become involved. Reported developments: - The Jan. 3 U.S. strike is reported to have prompted changes in guerilla activity and movement along the border, experts say. - The National Liberation Army (ELN) has reportedly closed some camps in Venezuela and suspended training operations there while reviewing security protocols, according to analysts. - A leader of a FARC-split group issued a video calling for guerilla groups to form a common front with the Venezuelan military against the U.S., though some researchers say his appeal is unlikely to gain wide support. - Colombia's Interior Minister said President Donald Trump and President Gustavo Petro agreed to work together against the ELN, and Petro is scheduled to visit the White House next month. Summary: Experts report that the Jan. 3 attack has increased uncertainty for armed groups and border communities, and that the ELN has moved to consolidate and pause some activities. Diplomatic coordination between the U.S. and Colombia is expected with President Petro's planned White House visit next month; other outcomes are undetermined at this time.