How Iran shapes global energy and trade.

Tensions around Iran are raising oil price risks and complicating trade ties with China; sanctions and shadow shipping are making enforcement more difficult.

Rising tensions around Iran are affecting global energy markets and trade ties. Sanctions, proposed tariffs and heightened rhetoric are feeding into price risk for oil and other commodities. China remains Iran's largest trading partner, and much of that commerce has shifted to smaller private channels after state firms pulled back. These developments are drawing attention from policymakers and markets. Key points: - U.S. sanctions and heightened rhetoric have increased oil price risk and analysts have warned prices could rise further. - A large share of seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that factors into market risk assessments. - About 30 per cent of Iran's exports were reported to go to China, with Chinese customs data showing roughly US$47-billion in imports from Iran last year. - Much Iran–China trade now moves through smaller private traders after major state-owned oil companies reduced activity to avoid U.S. secondary sanctions. Summary: These dynamics are adding short-term price and trade uncertainty and are influencing decisions by companies and governments. Proposed measures such as U.S. tariffs and legal challenges to emergency economic powers remain unresolved. Undetermined at this time.