2026 likely among the hottest years on record, Environment Canada says

Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts 2026 will likely be among the four hottest years on record, projecting a global average about 1.35–1.53°C above pre-industrial levels and a 12% chance of exceeding 1.5°C.

Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts that 2026 will likely be among the four hottest years on record. A brief analysis posted on ClimateData.ca reports scientists are "virtually certain" 2026 will be among the hottest years ever recorded. The modelling projects a global average temperature for 2026 of about 1.35°C to 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels. The analysis notes a 12 per cent chance of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold in 2026. Key findings: - Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts 2026 will likely be among the four hottest years on record. - Projected global average temperature range for 2026 is 1.35°C to 1.53°C above the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). - The analysis reports a 12% probability of exceeding 1.5°C in 2026 and cautions that a single-year exceedance does not by itself determine compliance with the Paris Agreement, which is assessed by long-term averages. - This would be the 13th consecutive year with global temperatures more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels; the non-profit Berkeley Earth also expects 2026 to be near the fourth-warmest year since 1850. Summary: The forecasts point to continued elevated global temperatures, influenced in part by a recent strong El Niño and by ongoing human-caused emissions. While a single year above 1.5°C would not override the Paris Agreement's long-term measure, the projection indicates a sustained warming trend. Undetermined at this time.