Middle powers face a test as the old order fractures

Mark Carney told a Davos audience that the post‑1945 rules‑based order is weakening, and the article argues that middle powers like Canada may need to form issue‑based coalitions and invest in capacity to sustain cooperative rules.

Mark Carney told a Davos audience that the post‑1945 rules‑based order is weakening as powerful states use economic ties as leverage. The piece reviews how Canada relied on institutions such as the UN, NATO and the WTO to gain voice, stability and access after 1945. It also notes shortcomings in that system, including domestic social strains and perceptions that the rules favour some states. The article argues middle powers now face choices about reforming institutions or building new, issue‑specific coalitions. Key points: - Mark Carney said the rules‑based order is weakening and suggested middle powers may need to form coalitions that act issue by issue. - Canada historically used multilateral institutions like the UN, NATO and the WTO to secure a voice, predictable rules and access to markets and security arrangements. - The article identifies failures in the old system, including domestic social fracture, perceived double standards, and a sense among some rising powers that the system is stacked against them. - Recent U.S. rhetoric questioning certain multilateral bodies is presented as altering the old order's centre of gravity. - The author argues middle powers should concentrate on problem‑solving coalitions on topics such as climate, health, AI governance, the Arctic and supply chains, while investing in defence, resilience and diplomatic capacity. Summary: The article suggests the international order will become more fragmented and more dependent on coalitions of willing states rather than a single great‑power centre. For Canada and similar middle powers, this presents choices about where to invest political capital—whether to press for institutional reform or to build new, issue‑specific partnerships. Undetermined at this time.