Scarborough Southwest byelection could decide Ontario's next Liberal leader

A provincial byelection in Scarborough Southwest was set off by Doly Begum's move to run for a federal Liberal seat, and federal MP Nate Erskine-Smith has announced he will seek the Ontario Liberal nomination there; the outcome could influence the party's leadership contest.

A provincial byelection in Scarborough Southwest has arisen after MPP Doly Begum moved to seek a federal Liberal nomination, prompting a federal byelection to be held before the provincial contest. Federal MP Nate Erskine-Smith said he will run for the Ontario Liberal nomination in Scarborough Southwest and intends to resign his federal seat once the provincial byelection is called. The move has altered expectations around the Ontario Liberal leadership race and drawn public attention from provincial and federal politicians. Party officials and potential candidates are awaiting formal details on leadership entry rules and timelines. Key facts: - Doly Begum left the Ontario NDP to run as the federal Liberal candidate in a federal byelection in Scarborough Southwest, and that federal byelection is scheduled to take place before the provincial contest. - Nate Erskine-Smith announced he will seek the Ontario Liberal nomination for Scarborough Southwest and said he will resign as a federal MP when the provincial byelection is called. - Premier Doug Ford said his Progressive Conservatives will run a vigorous campaign and has up to six months before he must call the provincial byelection writ. - In the February 2025 provincial vote in Scarborough Southwest, Begum received 42.9% of the vote, the PC candidate 30.7%, the Liberal candidate 22.9%, and the Green candidate 3.5%. - Several current Ontario Liberal MPPs and outside figures have shown interest in the party leadership, and party officials said entry fees and timelines for the leadership race will be released after an upcoming meeting. - The Ontario NDP plans a nomination process to replace Begum, and there is early interest in the federal nomination that would succeed Erskine-Smith if he steps down. Summary: The Scarborough Southwest contests have the potential to influence who leads the Ontario Liberals because a win there could give a leadership hopeful a seat in the legislature. Timing and formal rules for the party leadership contest are pending and the exact date of a provincial byelection is undetermined at this time.