Mortgage renewals largely avoid broad distress, but Toronto and Vancouver show warning signs

Canada's mortgage arrears rate has risen modestly to 0.22% between 2023 and 2025 but remains below historical norms, and CMHC warns arrears are likely to worsen in 2026 with Toronto and Vancouver showing the largest increases.

Canada's housing agency reports a modest rise in mortgage delinquencies even as overall levels remain low by historical standards. CMHC deputy chief economist Tania Bourassa-Ochoa said arrears increased between 2023 and 2025 and are expected to worsen in 2026. Roughly 1.5 million households renewed pandemic-era low-rate mortgages last year, and about one million more renewals are expected in 2026. Officials highlighted that Toronto and Vancouver have experienced the largest increases in mortgage arrears. Key facts: - The national mortgage arrears rate rose by seven basis points to 0.22% between 2023 and 2025, according to CMHC. - CMHC expects mortgage arrears to worsen in 2026, with Toronto and Vancouver cited as particular areas of concern. - About 1.5 million households renewed mortgages in the past year and roughly one million renewals are expected in 2026. - Toronto's arrears rate rose from 0.06% in Q3 2022 to 0.26% in Q3 2025 and is forecast by CMHC to reach 0.34% by the end of 2026. - Analysts say longer amortization periods and stronger wage growth helped households absorb higher payments after the pandemic-era rate resets. Summary: The immediate impact has been limited, with arrears still below historical and pre-pandemic levels, but officials warn the picture could deteriorate in 2026 as another wave of renewals occurs and job-market weakness or trade-related pressures affect some regions. Undetermined at this time.