Alberta independence support sits at three in ten, poll finds

A new Angus Reid poll of 979 Albertans found 29% would vote to separate from Canada while 57% said they would definitely vote to stay; a separate Ipsos survey earlier this year showed similar initial support that fell after respondents considered potential downsides.

Three months remain until the petition deadline on May 2, and recent polling shows support for Alberta leaving Canada has not moved much. An Angus Reid Institute survey of 979 Albertans conducted last week found 29 per cent would vote to separate, while other polling from Ipsos in January showed similar initial numbers that fell after respondents considered possible downsides. Key findings: - The Angus Reid poll found 29 per cent of respondents would vote to separate; eight per cent (80 people) said they would definitely vote to leave and 21 per cent said they were leaning that way. - In the same Angus Reid survey, 57 per cent said they would definitely vote to stay and eight per cent (81 people) said they were leaning toward staying. - Ipsos’s Confederation Stress Test surveyed 500 Albertans and also found about 29 per cent would begin the separation process, but support fell to about 15–16 per cent after respondents were asked to consider potential downsides such as lower living standards or pension losses. - Among those who would definitely vote to stay, 93 per cent agreed Alberta would struggle as a landlocked country to sell its resources globally and 88 per cent said their own financial prospects would be harmed by independence; 28 per cent of that group found the argument that Alberta gives more to Canada than it receives convincing. - Of the 209 respondents who lean toward leaving, about 78 per cent believe their financial prospects would improve with independence and 95 per cent agree the province would control its own resources; fewer than 20 per cent of that group found arguments to stay convincing, though 16 per cent found the argument that independence would cause economic instability convincing. Summary: Polling so far shows modest and stable support for separation at around three in ten Albertans, with larger majorities saying they would remain in Canada. The separation petition needs about 177,000 signatures by May 2, including 10 per cent from eligible voters in the last provincial election, and signatures must be validated by the province’s chief electoral officer before the petition can be presented to the Alberta government. A judicial review application by several First Nations has been filed against Elections Alberta’s decision to approve the petition, and proponents say they are confident they can meet the deadline. Undetermined at this time.