Arctic black carbon threat is being overshadowed by geopolitical tensions

Ship traffic and soot in the Arctic have risen in recent years, and several countries have proposed an IMO rule requiring cleaner 'polar fuels' for ships north of the 60th parallel even as geopolitics and industry resistance slow progress.

As sea ice has retreated, more ships are using Arctic routes and emitting soot known as black carbon. That soot darkens snow and ice, which increases local warming. In December, several countries proposed an IMO rule to require cleaner ‘‘polar fuels’’ for ships north of the 60th parallel. Geopolitical tensions and industry concerns are affecting how quickly those measures move forward. Key points: - Ship traffic north of the 60th parallel rose 37% between 2013 and 2023, and total distance traveled in that area increased about 111% in the same period. - Black carbon emissions from ships north of the 60th parallel increased from about 2,696 metric tons in 2019 to about 3,310 metric tons in 2024. - France, Germany, the Solomon Islands and Denmark proposed that the International Maritime Organization require ships in Arctic waters to use lighter ‘‘polar fuels;’’ the proposal was expected to be presented to the IMO Pollution Prevention and Response Committee this week, with possible further consideration in April. - A 2024 ban on heavy fuel oil in the Arctic has had only modest effects so far because waivers and exceptions allow some continued use through 2029. Summary: Black carbon from ships is reported to contribute to faster Arctic warming by reducing the reflectivity of snow and ice, and increased marine traffic has raised emissions. The polar fuels proposal will go to an IMO committee for consideration, but progress is constrained by geopolitical disputes and industry resistance, and the ultimate outcome is undetermined at this time.