Russia unlikely to attack NATO this year, intelligence chief says

Estonian intelligence head Kaupo Rosin said Russia lacks the resources to launch an attack on NATO this year or next but plans to increase forces along NATO’s eastern flank; diplomatic talks involving Moscow, Washington and Kyiv are continuing, with a reported June deadline for a settlement.

An Estonian intelligence official reported that Russia currently lacks the resources to mount an attack on NATO this year or next and is instead planning to strengthen forces along the alliance’s eastern flank. The assessment was presented ahead of Estonia’s annual security report and is based on reported internal Russian discussions. The official also said Russian President Vladimir Putin does not presently seek to halt the invasion of Ukraine and believes he can outmaneuver others in negotiations. Diplomatic talks involving Moscow, Washington and Kyiv continue and have produced some prisoner-release agreements. Key points: - Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, said Russia cannot mount an attack on NATO this year or next according to the available assessment. - Rosin said Russia plans to form new units and significantly increase forces along the NATO border, but that build-up will depend on developments in Ukraine. - Diplomatic negotiations are ongoing; a reported June deadline for a settlement was mentioned and a recent Abu Dhabi agreement led to the release of more than 300 prisoners. Summary: Estonian intelligence warns of planned Russian force increases while saying a direct attack on NATO is not expected this year or next. Talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine are continuing, with a reported June deadline for a possible settlement and previous prisoner exchanges noted.