OPEC forecasts OPEC+ crude demand will drop in second quarter

OPEC projects demand for OPEC+ crude will fall by 400,000 barrels per day in Q2 to 42.20 million bpd, and reports OPEC+ output was 42.45 million bpd in January, down 439,000 bpd from December.

OPEC on Wednesday forecast a drop in world demand for crude from the wider OPEC+ group in the second quarter. The report projects demand will decline by 400,000 barrels per day to an average of 42.20 million bpd, with that projection unchanged from last month. OPEC+ raised output last year after prolonged cuts and paused further production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 amid expectations of a glut. Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to meet on March 1 to discuss whether to resume the planned increases in April. Key figures: - OPEC projects OPEC+ crude demand at 42.20 million bpd in Q2, down from 42.60 million bpd in Q1. - The report's demand forecasts were left unchanged from the prior month, including anticipated world oil demand rises of 1.38 million bpd for 2026 and 1.34 million bpd for 2027. - OPEC+ pumped 42.45 million bpd in January 2026, a decrease of 439,000 bpd from December 2025, with reductions reported in Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela and Iran. - OPEC's 2026 demand forecast is reported as higher than the International Energy Agency's estimate. Summary: OPEC's outlook describes a modest seasonal easing in demand for OPEC+ crude in the second quarter while noting recent production declines in several member countries. The immediate next procedural step is the March 1 meeting of eight OPEC+ members, where a decision on resuming April output hikes is expected. The broader annual demand projections remain unchanged at this time.