Canada not on track to meet net-zero by 2050, study finds

A Canadian Climate Institute study reports Canada is not on track to meet its 2026, 2030 or 2050 climate targets; the government's progress report shows a best-case 28% emissions cut by 2030 while emissions were only 9% below 2005 levels in 2023.

A new report from the Canadian Climate Institute says Canada is not on track to meet its near- and long-term climate goals. The study points to a recent slackening of policy effort, including federal and provincial rollbacks or removals of several measures. Ottawa published an emissions progress report that models a best-case 28% reduction by 2030 while actual reductions through 2023 were 9% compared with 2005. The report and experts cited raise concerns about negotiated exceptions that could weaken national policy floors. Key findings: - The institute reports Canada is not on track to meet the 2026 interim target, the 2030 Paris commitment, or net-zero by 2050. - The government's published progress report models a best-case 28% emissions reduction by 2030; actual emissions were 9% below 2005 levels as of 2023, while the G7 average is reported near 30%. - The study links the shortfall to recent policy changes, including the end of federal consumer carbon pricing, closure of green home retrofit funding, cancellation of an oil and gas emissions cap, weakened or suspended provincial industrial carbon prices, and repeal of Ontario's climate accountability legislation. - The report highlights that several modeled reductions depend on measures still subject to negotiation, such as industrial carbon pricing, Clean Electricity Regulations, and methane rules, and it recommends stronger national minimum standards and a larger clean electricity buildout. Summary: The study concludes Canada is not on track to meet its stated climate targets and identifies policy rollbacks and negotiated exceptions as key factors. Undetermined at this time.