Mexico dismisses US military intervention possibility despite Trump's threats

President Claudia Sheinbaum said she does not see a risk of U.S. military intervention, and analysts say Trump's public threats are being used as a negotiating tactic to extract concessions.

Mexico's government and analysts are downplaying the likelihood of unilateral U.S. military action against Mexican drug cartels, even after U.S. intervention in Venezuela and public threats from President Donald Trump. President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected the idea of foreign military intervention and stressed ongoing coordination with the United States. Officials point to deep economic links, large migrant populations in the U.S., and active security cooperation as factors that make Mexico's situation different from other countries cited by Washington. Analysts also say Mexico has increased arrests, drug seizures and extraditions, and that threats are often used as negotiation tools rather than immediate policy plans. What is known: - President Claudia Sheinbaum stated she does not see a risk of U.S. military intervention and rejected the idea of an invasion. - Mexico and the United States maintain strong economic ties, and roughly 40 million people of Mexican origin live in the United States, making bilateral relations significant. - The article reports that U.S. officials, including those mentioned by former Mexican ambassador Martha Bárcena, have acknowledged high-level cooperation with Mexico. - Since tariff pressures began, Mexico has increased arrests, drug seizures and extraditions and agreed to receive more deportees, according to experts cited. - Security analysts describe Trump's threats as a negotiation weapon aimed at gaining commercial, diplomatic or political concessions. - Commentators warned that direct U.S. military action would risk suspending cooperation and would carry financial, logistical and political costs, though some say public comments are an effective pressure tool. Summary: Mexico's public stance, current cooperation with the United States, and deep bilateral ties are cited by officials and analysts as reducing the immediate likelihood of U.S. military action. Experts expect the use of threats to continue as part of negotiation dynamics, particularly amid upcoming USMCA-related discussions and related policy negotiations.