2026 may be the year coral reefs reach a global tipping point

Report states roughly 30–50% of coral reefs were lost in the last decade and warns that an El Niño expected in 2026 could push warm-water corals past a global tipping point.

Scientists say 2026 could be a pivotal year for coral reefs as ocean warming continues to affect marine ecosystems. Over the past decade, reporting cites estimates that about 30 to 50 percent of the world's coral reefs have been lost. A marine researcher, Dr Samantha Garrard, and other experts note that another El Niño in 2026 could come too soon after the last strong event for many reefs to recover. The article also references assessments that identify a thermal tipping level for corals, linked to rising global temperatures. Key points: - Reporting estimates that roughly 30–50% of the world's coral reefs have been lost in the last decade. - Experts warn that an El Niño expected in 2026 could hit reefs soon after the last strong event; the last El Niño exposed about 84% of reefs to bleaching-level heat. - The second Global Tipping Points report identifies a thermal tipping level near 1.2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, and the article states global warming is around 1.4°C, which researchers say raises the likelihood of repeated mass bleaching. Summary: If another strong El Niño occurs in 2026, reporting warns many warm-water coral populations may not have sufficient time to recover, increasing the risk of widespread reef loss. Some local reef populations and deeper or more heat-resilient communities are described as potentially longer-lived, but the overall outcome depends on future ocean temperatures and the coming Pacific cycle. The precise timing and scale of any global tipping event are undetermined at this time.