Global energy transition faces tensions between petro-states and electro-states in 2026

At COP30 in Belém, over 80 countries supported creating a formal road map to transition away from fossil fuels but oil- and gas-producing countries blocked that language from the final agreement; COP31 in late 2026 is set to revisit progress and report back.

Governments and negotiators brought the question of a global energy transition to the fore at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where a proposed road map to move away from fossil fuels dominated discussions. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and COP30 President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago supported creating a science-based, Paris-aligned road map, and more than 80 countries said they backed the idea. Opposition led by the Arab Group of oil- and gas-producing countries removed explicit road-map language from the final COP30 agreement. Corrêa has committed to lead work in 2026 to draft two road maps—one on halting and reversing deforestation and another on transitioning away from fossil fuels—and plans high-level meetings with governments, industries and other stakeholders. Key developments: - More than 90% of new power capacity added in 2024 came from renewable energy sources, and 2025 saw similar growth. - Over 80 countries at COP30 supported creating a road map to transition away from fossil fuels. - Oil- and gas-producing members of the Arab Group prevented road-map language from appearing in the final COP30 text. - André Aranha Corrêa do Lago plans to lead the road-map process in 2026 and report on progress at COP31 in late 2026. - The International Energy Agency expects renewable energy to grow faster than other major sources and reported that 2025 renewable investment was about twice that of fossil fuels; the IEA also projects roughly a 50% increase in global LNG supply by 2030, about half of it from the United States. - Nigeria provides an illustrative case: oil exports account for around 80% to over 90% of government revenue while roughly 39% of its population lacks access to electricity. Summary: The outcome of the Belém road-map dialogue will affect how countries address market dynamics, supply and demand, and equity in the energy transition. Corrêa's planned reporting at COP31 in late 2026, which will be hosted by Turkey with Australia leading negotiations, will be the next formal opportunity to assess progress and how the road-map process is shaping international discussions.