US tariff threat pulls copper from China's bonded warehouses

China's refined copper exports hit record levels in 2025 as traders shipped metal from bonded warehouses to meet demand for U.S. delivery, and a possible U.S. tariff decision has been deferred until June.

China's exports of refined copper rose to record levels in 2025 as traders redirected metal held in bonded warehouse zones. The U.S. copper contract on the CME is trading at a sizeable premium to the LME, which has encouraged shipments to the United States and elsewhere. That movement has reduced visible stocks at Chinese ports and altered normal trading patterns. A formal U.S. tariff decision has been deferred until June. What is known: - China's outbound refined copper shipments were 143,000 metric tons in November and 698,500 metric tons year-to-date, a 2025 record. - November shipments included about 57,700 metric tons bound for the United States, sourced from bonded warehouses at Chinese ports. - The CME U.S. copper contract carries a sizeable premium over the LME price as markets price in the prospect of U.S. tariffs; the tariff decision is deferred until June. - CME copper stocks have risen to over 450,000 metric tons, more than the combined inventories of the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and desirable LME brands for U.S. delivery have been depleted. - China’s imports of Chilean and Peruvian copper fell sharply in January-November 2025, while shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia made up larger shares of Chinese imports. Summary: The CME premium has pulled physical copper out of China's bonded warehouse zones and reshaped global flows, contributing to higher visible stocks at the CME while reducing availability elsewhere. Global exchange inventories closed 2025 above 800,000 metric tons, with the rise driven largely by arrivals at the CME. A pending U.S. tariff decision, deferred until June, is the next scheduled development that market participants are watching.