Market risk rises as Supreme Court considers Trump's emergency tariff powers

The U.S. Supreme Court is deciding whether President Trump can use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs without congressional approval; justices showed skepticism during November arguments and a decision could come as early as Friday.

The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on whether President Trump may use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs without congressional approval. Justices signaled skepticism during November arguments, and markets are watching for the court's decision. A ruling could arrive as early as Friday. Analysts and investors say the outcome could affect government revenue and market volatility. Key points: - The case will determine whether the President can invoke IEEPA to impose tariffs without Congress. - During November arguments, justices expressed concerns about the scope of that authority; online betting markets assigned roughly a 30% chance the tariffs will be upheld. - If the tariffs are struck down, reports say the government could face reduced tariff revenue and possible refund obligations, which analysts warn could push Treasury yields higher and increase equity market volatility. - Some commentators estimate importers could receive roughly $150–$200 billion in refunds if a ruling requires repayments, and JPMorgan has estimated annualized tariff revenue might fall from about $350 billion to roughly $250 billion under lower-rate alternatives. Summary: The court's decision could influence government receipts, bond yields and equity volatility, and it may prompt legal or administrative responses from the administration. A final ruling could come as early as Friday, and further developments will depend on the court's judgment and any subsequent actions by policymakers or agencies.