US CPC says 75% chance La Nina will transition to neutral by early 2026

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says there is a 75% chance La Nina will shift to ENSO‑neutral between January and March, while atmospheric patterns remain consistent with a weak La Nina. Forecasters and meteorologists noted possible regional effects on rainfall and crops and said El Nino could be possible later in the Northern Hemisphere summer.

La Nina is still present, but the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported a 75% probability it will transition to ENSO‑neutral conditions between January and March. Atmospheric indicators across the tropical Pacific have continued to show patterns associated with La Nina, though forecasters describe the event as weak. Several meteorologists and weather agencies have noted possible downstream effects on regional rainfall and agricultural conditions. Some forecasts also keep open the possibility of El Nino developing later in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Key points: - The CPC reported a 75% chance La Nina will move to ENSO‑neutral between January and March. - Observed atmospheric anomalies included easterly wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and upper‑level westerly anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, consistent with La Nina. - AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster described the current La Nina as weak and said neutral conditions are expected in February or March, with a chance of El Nino later in the Northern Hemisphere summer. - Vaisala’s agricultural meteorologist reported the return to neutral conditions is likely to bring wetter conditions to Argentina’s agricultural belt and to the U.S. central and southern Plains later in the summer, affecting winter wheat and summer crops. - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Indonesia’s climate official reported generally weak but consistent La Nina indicators and said the pattern should ease by the end of the first quarter or later in the year. Summary: A shift toward ENSO‑neutral conditions is now the most likely near‑term outcome, which is associated with more average tropical Pacific temperatures and potentially steadier seasonal weather. Forecasters indicate the transition is most likely by late winter or early spring, and some model guidance leaves open the possibility of El Nino developing later in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Regional rainfall and crop moisture prospects were highlighted as areas likely to be influenced by these changes.