Alcohol consumption and mortality from four cancers in Australia were analysed for 1950–2018.

A time-series analysis of Australia from 1950–2018 reports that reductions in population-level alcohol consumption could substantially lower deaths from upper aerodigestive tract, colorectal, male liver and female breast cancers, particularly among older adults, with models accounting for tobacco use and health expenditure.

Researchers analysed nearly seven decades of Australian data to assess how changes in population alcohol consumption relate to mortality from four alcohol-related cancers. The study examines upper aerodigestive tract (UADT), colorectal, male liver and female breast cancers and uses aggregate time-series methods. The analysis adjusts for tobacco consumption and health expenditure and considers long lag times between exposure and cancer death. The authors report historical alcohol-attributable fractions to describe the cumulative population-level impact. Key findings: - The analysis covers Australia from 1950 through 2018 and focuses on four cancer types linked to alcohol. - Reductions in population-level alcohol consumption are reported as potentially substantially lowering mortality from UADT, colorectal, male liver and female breast cancers, with larger effects seen among older adults. - Models account for changes in tobacco use and health expenditure and examine long lag periods between exposure and cancer death, informed by prior evidence of long-term lags. - The study presents historical alcohol-attributable fractions based on aggregate data to estimate the cumulative contribution of alcohol to cancer deaths over time. Summary: The study suggests that long-term declines in population alcohol consumption would be associated with lower mortality for the four examined cancer types, especially in older age groups. The findings provide a population-level, historical estimate of alcohol-attributable cancer deaths. Undetermined at this time.