CIA says Cuba's economy is strained but stability is unclear

U.S. intelligence described Cuba's economy as severely strained, citing blackouts and the loss of Venezuelan oil support; the CIA assessments were inconclusive on whether the economic pressure will topple the government.

U.S. intelligence reports portray Cuba's economy as under severe stress. The CIA assessments point to frequent power outages, trade sanctions and a potential loss of Venezuelan oil support. Officials familiar with the confidential reports said the intelligence did not provide clear evidence that the Cuban government is about to fall. Those officials spoke on the condition of anonymity. Key points: - The CIA described key sectors such as agriculture and tourism as severely strained. - Reports cited frequent blackouts and the possible end of oil supplies from Venezuela as factors worsening the economy. - The intelligence assessments were described as inconclusive on whether economic distress would lead to government change. - U.S. officials also reported significant outmigration of younger people, and one estimate suggested the population may have fallen below earlier census figures. Summary: The assessments indicate heightened economic pressure in Cuba that could worsen if Venezuelan oil flows do not resume. Undetermined at this time.