Cuba edges closer to collapse as mass exodus continues

Independent research estimates Cuba's population may have fallen below 8 million after a roughly 25% drop in four years, while the government's statistics office reported 9.75 million residents at the end of 2024; experts link the decline to long-running US sanctions, severe economic contraction and large-scale emigration.

Cuba is experiencing a large outflow of people amid a severe economic downturn and mounting social strains. Independent demographers say the population may have fallen to under 8 million after a roughly 25% decline in four years, while the state statistics office reports 9.75 million residents at the end of 2024. Experts and officials attribute the change to a mix of long-running US sanctions, domestic economic collapse, failing public services and widespread emigration of working-age people. Authorities and independent analysts disagree about the scale and causes of the decline. Key points: - Independent studies cited in the reporting estimate a population fall of about 25% in four years and suggest Cuba may now have fewer than 8 million residents. - Cuba's National Office of Statistics and Information (Onei) reported 9.75 million residents at the end of 2024 and describes the demographic change as "profound" while disputing lower estimates. - Analysts link the demographic decline to prolonged US sanctions, deep economic contraction, failing public services and the departure of many people aged 15–59, including a high share of women of reproductive age. - There is disagreement between government figures and independent researchers on scale and causes; what will happen next is undetermined at this time. Summary: The reported population loss and the emigration of working-age people are straining Cuba's economy, public services and demographic balance, according to the sources cited. Officials stress methodological differences in counts and point to the US embargo as a major factor, while independent researchers warn of long-term decline and loss of human capital. Undetermined at this time.