Australia's birth rate set to fall to a historic low

The Centre for Population's 2025 Population Statement projects Australia's fertility rate will drop to about 1.42 children per woman in 2025–26, and the national population is forecast to reach roughly 31.5 million by 2035–36, with recent net overseas migration lower than earlier estimates.

New government projections show Australia's fertility rate is forecast to fall to around 1.42 children per woman in 2025–26. The Centre for Population released the 2025 Population Statement with those estimates and wider demographic forecasts. Population growth has cooled and net overseas migration has recently dipped, while the national population is currently about 27.5 million. The Statement projects the population will reach about 31.5 million by 2035–36, slightly below last year's forecast. Key figures: - Fertility: The Statement projects the total fertility rate at about 1.42 children per woman in 2025–26, rising to around 1.62 by 2031–32 (reported). - Replacement level: These projections are below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, which Australia has not reached for almost fifty years. - Population totals: Australia's population recently passed 27.5 million and is forecast to be about 31.5 million by 2035–36, roughly 150,000 fewer than in last year's Statement. - Migration: Net overseas migration was reported at about 306,000 for 2024–25, a figure slightly below the Statement's estimate and described by officials as uncertain. Summary: Officials say the projected lower fertility and changed migration patterns point to slower population growth and an ageing population that will influence economic planning, housing and services over coming decades. Undetermined at this time.