Ammonia energy tradeoffs around the world are detailed in a new MIT analysis.

MIT Energy Initiative researchers built a harmonized dataset covering costs and lifecycle emissions for six ammonia production pathways across 63 countries, and the study quantifies large tradeoffs between lower-cost, higher-emissions pathways and low-carbon, higher-cost options.

Researchers at the MIT Energy Initiative have compiled a harmonized global dataset that maps costs and lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for ammonia production and trade. The work covers six production pathways and potential ammonia flows among 63 countries and integrates country-specific factors such as energy prices and financing conditions. Ammonia is already produced and shipped at scale for fertilizer, and interest is growing in its use as a carbon-free energy carrier and hydrogen medium. The study aims to make cross-country and cross-technology comparisons possible where prior analyses were fragmented. Key findings: - The dataset covers six ammonia production technologies and potential trade routes among 63 countries, and it includes costs and lifecycle emissions that account for feedstock extraction, production, storage, shipping, and import processing. - In U.S.-average terms, conventional natural gas steam methane reforming (gray ammonia) had the lowest production cost in the study at about $0.48 per kilogram but the highest lifecycle emissions at about 2.46 kg CO2e per kilogram. - Pairing conventional processes with carbon capture reduced global greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 71 percent in a full transition scenario, at an estimated 23.2 percent increase in cost; SMR with carbon capture showed about a 61 percent emissions reduction for a 29 percent cost increase in the U.S. context. - Auto-thermal reforming (ATR) with air combustion plus carbon capture had roughly a 10 percent higher cost than conventional SMR and emitted about 0.75 kg CO2e per kilogram, while an ATR variation with oxygen combustion plus carbon capture showed lower emissions at roughly $0.57 per kilogram. - Electrolyzed ammonia made with renewable electricity offered the largest emissions reduction (about 99.7 percent) but at higher cost (about a 46 percent increase), and when nuclear power supplies electrolysis the study reports near-zero lifecycle emissions (about 0.03 kg CO2e per kilogram). - The study found major cross-country differences driven by grid and renewable electricity prices, natural gas costs, and financing; China and parts of the Middle East emerged as competitive suppliers for low-carbon ammonia in many modeled trade corridors. Summary: The harmonized dataset provides a clearer comparison of cost and lifecycle emissions tradeoffs among gray, blue, and green ammonia pathways and highlights how outcomes vary by country energy mixes and prices. The authors say the data can inform researchers, industry stakeholders, and policymakers, while specific policy or market outcomes are undetermined at this time.