Western US bird communities exposed to predicted high-severity fire

The study reports that 55–58% of biodiversity hotspots in the western United States overlap predicted low-severity burn areas described as refugia, while 24–30% overlap predicted high-severity burn areas described as areas of concern.

Researchers combined recent fire forecasts with species distribution models to assess how projected high-severity fires may intersect with bird diversity across the western United States. The analysis looked at species richness, community uniqueness, and functional richness to map where high biodiversity overlaps with predicted low- or high-severity burn areas. This work responds to changing fire regimes and questions about where biodiversity may be most exposed. The authors report patterns that may be outside historical fire variation in some places. Key findings: - The study reports that 55–58% of biodiversity hotspots are classified as "refugia", where high biodiversity overlaps predicted low-severity burn areas. - The authors report that 24–30% of biodiversity hotspots are classified as "areas of concern", where high biodiversity overlaps predicted high-severity burn areas. - The study reports that 52–60% of these "areas of concern" occur in landscapes with historically low-severity fire regimes, indicating a fire regime mismatch. - Species reported as most likely to be exposed to predicted high-severity fire include those that prefer dense vegetation and those with shallower beak depth. Summary: The analysis identifies where high bird biodiversity coincides with projected fire severity, distinguishing refugia from areas of concern. The authors report a notable proportion of areas of concern lie in places with historically low-severity fire regimes, which is presented as a potential threat to some species. Undetermined at this time.