Plastics health risks projected to more than double by 2040

A Lancet Planetary Health modelling study finds annual healthy years lost from the global plastics system could rise from 2.1 million in 2016 to 4.5 million in 2040 under a business-as-usual scenario; combined systemic measures could cut the 2040 health burden by about 43% compared with business-as-usual.

A new modelling study published in Lancet Planetary Health reports growing global health harms linked to plastics across their life cycle. The research was led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine with collaborators at the University of Toulouse and the University of Exeter. It examined scenarios for production, consumption and waste management from 2016 to 2040. The study compares a business-as-usual path with alternative approaches that change multiple parts of the plastics system. Key findings: - The study estimates annual healthy years lost could rise from 2.1 million in 2016 to 4.5 million in 2040 under a business-as-usual scenario. - About 40% of the projected health burden is attributed to greenhouse gas emissions and linked warming, roughly 32% to air pollution from production, and about 27% to toxic chemicals released to the environment. - A scenario that focused only on increased collection or recycling showed little reduction in global health burden, while a combined system-wide approach that also limits production reduced the 2040 burden by about 43% compared with business-as-usual. Summary: The study projects a substantial increase in health impacts from plastics emissions by 2040 if current trends continue. The authors report that changes across the whole plastics life cycle and improved transparency from industry would be associated with lower future health burdens.