Aid cuts could cause 22 million avoidable deaths by 2030

A modelling study published in Lancet Global Health reports that continued reductions in overseas aid could produce about 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030, including an estimated 5.4 million children under five; a milder funding reduction would project around 9.4 million excess deaths, including about 2.5 million young children.

A modelling study in Lancet Global Health examines how cuts to overseas aid could affect global mortality through 2030. The researchers analysed data linking official development assistance and death rates from 2002 to 2021, then modelled three funding scenarios: business-as-usual, mild defunding, and severe defunding. The study notes that past aid has been associated with large falls in child deaths and reductions in mortality from infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies. Researchers and funders described widening funding gaps and reported strains on health services in some recipient settings. Key findings: - Under a severe-defunding scenario, the model projects about 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030, including roughly 5.4 million children under five. - Under a mild-defunding scenario, the model projects about 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030, including about 2.5 million children under five. - The study reports that overseas aid has previously been linked to a 39% reduction in under-five deaths and to significant effects on deaths from HIV/Aids, malaria, and nutritional deficiencies. - The report cites recent aid reductions by major donors, including a reported fall in US aid from $68bn to $32bn in 2025 and a planned UK reduction from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP by 2028 (about £6bn lower). Summary: The modelling indicates large differences in projected deaths depending on future aid levels, with young children and infectious-disease outcomes highlighted as especially affected. Undetermined at this time.