Met Office supercomputer may predict fog up to two weeks ahead

The Met Office has upgraded its main forecast model and moved it to Microsoft Azure's supercomputer, and reports the change can extend local fog forecasts to about 10–14 days while improving cloud and rain accuracy.

The Met Office has rolled out its largest forecast-model upgrade in three years and is now running the system on Microsoft Azure's supercomputer. The agency reports the new setup improves the model's treatment of cloud microphysics and extends global forecasts to 10 days and local forecasts to 14 days. Officials say the changes should give earlier, more accurate guidance on low cloud and fog and pick up more light rain and drizzle. The move is presented as particularly useful for winter weather and for sectors that rely on precise cloud and fog information, such as aviation. Key facts: - The update is described by the Met Office as its biggest upgrade in three years and is the first version of the model to run on Microsoft Azure. - The Azure system is reported to process about 200–300 terabytes of weather data each day for the Met Office model. - The model improvements focus on cloud microphysics, aiming for better representation of cloud formation, cloud height and very low cloud (mist or fog). - The Met Office reports global forecasts are extended to 10 days and local forecasts to 14 days, with fog guidance reported as improved out to 10–14 days. - The agency and a Science Minister were quoted saying the upgrade should benefit aviation and provide earlier, more useful weather guidance for storms and travel disruption. Summary: The Met Office says the new model running on Azure will produce more accurate cloud, fog and rain forecasts and extend the forecast horizon for local conditions. Reported benefits include earlier warning of fog and better detection of light precipitation. Undetermined at this time.