Smoke-free law could cut smoking in young people below 5%

Modelling of the UK's proposed 'smoke-free generation' law — which would ban tobacco sales to people born in 2009 or later from 2027 — suggests smoking among 12–30-year-olds could fall below 5%, and projects about 88,000 additional healthy life years by 2075 compared with no new law.

The government plans a "smoke-free generation" law that would ban the sale of tobacco to people born in 2009 or later, with the progressive age-of-sale change due to start in 2027. Researchers at the University of Nottingham used detailed modelling to project how smoking among 12- to 30-year-olds in England could change if the law is implemented. Smoking remains relatively common in the UK: about 6 million adults smoke, and Action on Smoking and Health estimates 100,000 children aged 11–15 currently smoke. Public health organisations note smoking is a leading cause of premature and preventable death and is linked to more than a quarter of cancer deaths in the UK. Key findings: - The modelling projects smoking prevalence among 12–30-year-olds in England could fall below 5% if the smoke-free generation law is enacted. - By 2075 the study estimates around 88,000 additional years of healthy life compared with a scenario with no new law. - Around 30% of the total projected healthy life years gained are estimated to occur in the most deprived 20% of neighbourhoods. - The research team says it used more cautious assumptions than the government's published impact assessment, resulting in different projected reductions. - The World Health Organization and Action on Smoking and Health have highlighted youth vaping concerns; ASH estimates about 400,000 children aged 11–17 currently vape in the UK, and England introduced a ban on disposable vapes in July 2025. Summary: If implemented as modelled, the law could substantially reduce smoking among younger age groups and is projected to generate measurable gains in healthy life years, especially in more deprived communities. The study's authors and public health groups say how the policy is put into practice — including enforcement, communication and local stop-smoking support — will influence how quickly and evenly benefits appear. The government plans to introduce the measure as part of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, with age-of-sale changes beginning from 2027.