Gaza death toll early in war higher than reported, says Lancet study

A Lancet Global Health study estimates more than 75,000 people were killed in Gaza in the first 16 months of the war, about 25,000 more than local authorities reported at the time.

A Lancet Global Health study published in February 2026 estimates that more than 75,000 people were killed in Gaza during the first 16 months of the conflict. That estimate is about 25,000 higher than the death toll announced by local authorities at the time. The research also found that Gaza health ministry reporting on the share of women, children and older people among those killed was broadly accurate. The study drew on a representative household survey run by experienced Palestinian pollsters. Key findings: - Researchers estimate over 75,000 violent deaths in Gaza between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025, about 25,000 more than official counts at the time. - The study reports 42,200 deaths among women, children and older people, comprising 56% of violent deaths. - The analysis was based on a survey of 2,000 families selected to represent Gaza's population and used established polling teams. - Authors estimate roughly 8,200 additional deaths may be attributable to indirect effects such as malnutrition or untreated illness, and they note results have margins of error. Summary: The study indicates that official counts during the early phase of the war underreported violent deaths and that considerable uncertainty remains about a definitive total. Researchers say a full accounting would require substantial time and resources. Undetermined at this time.