UK records £30.4bn January borrowing surplus, but can it last?

In January the UK posted a record £30.4bn government borrowing surplus—about £6bn above forecasts—and official data showed retail sales rose 1.8% month‑on‑month; commentators note monthly receipts are volatile and may include one‑off timing effects.

January saw a record government borrowing surplus of £30.4bn, the highest since records began in 1993. That outcome was about £6bn above consensus forecasts and roughly double last January's surplus. Official retail data for January also surprised on the upside, while the fiscal picture sits against recent tax and spending changes. Monthly fiscal figures are known to be volatile and can reflect timing or one‑off decisions by taxpayers. Key facts: - The government reported a £30.4bn borrowing surplus in January, the largest since 1993 and about £6bn above forecasts. - Income tax receipts beat expectations for the second month running, which the article links to higher wages and the freezing of tax thresholds. - Office for National Statistics retail sales rose 1.8% in January compared with December, above an expected 0.2%. - The piece highlights possible one‑off timing effects, including taxpayers bringing forward capital gains to avoid potential tax changes. - Inflation fell to 3% from 3.4%, and the article notes the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets next month to set interest rates. Summary: The January surplus and stronger retail sales provide a near‑term improvement in the public finances and suggest some upward momentum in activity. Observers emphasise volatility in monthly data and the potential for one‑off receipts, and they point to the upcoming Bank of England meeting and future monthly receipts as the next markers that will help determine whether the improvement endures.