Antarctica study outlines possible worst-case climate scenario

A modelling study of the Antarctic Peninsula finds a high-emissions scenario could reduce regional sea ice by about 20% by 2100 and add up to 22 millimetres to sea level by 2100 (172 mm by 2300).

Researchers published a modelling study that projects future changes for the Antarctic Peninsula and why those changes matter. The team compared low, medium-high, and high emissions pathways to estimate effects on sea ice, ocean temperatures, and ice-shelf stability. In the study's highest-emissions case, regional sea ice could decline by about 20% by 2100 and the Peninsula's contribution to sea level was modelled at up to 22 millimetres by 2100 and 172 millimetres by 2300. Authors emphasized that Antarctic changes can influence global sea levels and ocean circulation. Key findings: - The study used three emissions scenarios: low, medium-high, and high. - The high-emissions scenario projects roughly 20% sea ice loss around the Peninsula by 2100. - Modelled sea level contribution from the Peninsula is up to 22 mm by 2100 and 172 mm by 2300. - Researchers reported that reduced sea ice and weakened ice shelves can alter ocean heat uptake and circulation. Summary: The study indicates that under higher emissions the Antarctic Peninsula could see substantial regional sea-ice loss and measurable contributions to global sea level, with associated changes in ocean heat and circulation. Researchers describe current emissions as between the medium and medium-high cases. Undetermined at this time.