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RIVN outlook for 2026 suggests an 18% downside, analysts say
Summary
The article mentions that Rivian's stock rose strongly in 2025 but Wall Street's average price target implies about an 18% decline for 2026; the company recently held an Autonomy and AI Day and announced new hardware, software and a planned Autonomy+ service.
Content
The article mentions that Rivian's shares rose about 48% in 2025 and were up roughly 2% early Friday. It also notes that Wall Street's consensus implies about an 18% downside for 2026 based on recent analyst price targets. The company held its first Autonomy and AI Day on December 11 and unveiled a custom chip, a new vehicle computer, branded foundational AI models, and plans to launch an Autonomy+ self‑driving subscription this year. Analysts remain split on how those developments affect Rivian's demand outlook and path to profitability.
Key points:
- The article mentions Rivian's 2025 gain of about 48% and a small early rise the following Friday.
- The article mentions a Hold consensus from 21 analysts (eight Buys, eight Holds, five Sells) and an average price target of $16.22, implying about a 17.71% downside.
- The article mentions the Dec. 11 Autonomy and AI Day unveiled a new in‑house chip, a new vehicle computer, branded AI models, and plans for an Autonomy+ subscription service.
- The article mentions that some analysts raised price targets after the presentations, while others, including analysts at RBC Capital and Morgan Stanley, flagged concerns about cash, weak demand, and the profit potential of upcoming models.
- The article mentions that a few analysts see potential declines in the 30%–40% range or more for RIVN stock.
Summary:
The article indicates that, despite notable stock gains in 2025 and recent technical announcements, the average analyst view implies a near‑18% downside for Rivian in 2026. Analysts are divided: some increased targets after the Autonomy and AI Day, while others emphasize cash, demand, and profitability risks. The planned launch of the Autonomy+ service this year is highlighted as a key upcoming development.
