Venezuela's oil output could rise in the long term, Goldman says

Goldman Sachs said Venezuelan oil production could recover gradually and partially over the long term but would require substantial investment; the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro and statements about US-backed rebuilding of the oil sector were cited in recent reporting.

US authorities captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend, and US officials have described plans to support rebuilding the country's oil sector. Goldman Sachs said those developments, and the prospect of renewed investment, increase the potential for higher Venezuelan oil output over the long run. The bank warned that any recovery would likely be gradual and partial because much of the country's oil infrastructure is degraded and would need substantial upstream investment. Venezuela still holds the world's largest proven oil reserves but its output has fallen sharply from past peaks. Key facts: - Goldman Sachs said a long-term rise in Venezuelan production could put downward pressure on global crude prices and increase downside risks to its 2027 price outlook. - Analysts at Goldman, including Daan Struyven, wrote that recovery would likely be gradual and partial due to degraded infrastructure and the need for strong investment incentives. - Goldman left its current-year average-price forecasts unchanged at $56 a barrel for Brent and $52 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate in its note. - President Donald Trump said US companies would invest billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure after Maduro's capture. - Venezuela produced about 3 million barrels per day at its mid-2000s peak and was seen at roughly 930,000 barrels per day last November; a recent partial blockade of tankers contributed to local storage filling. Summary: Goldman views a potential gradual, partial recovery in Venezuelan output as a factor that could add to global supply and weigh on long-term oil prices. Undetermined at this time.