US car market expected to moderate in 2026

Auto industry experts expect U.S. car sales to ease in 2026 after 2025's rise to about 16.3 million, with forecasts clustering around 15.8–16.0 million.

Auto industry analysts expect U.S. new-car sales to moderate in 2026 after a stronger 2025. Sales for 2025 rose to about 16.3 million, helped by policy announcements and a late surge before an EV tax credit phased out. Early-year tariff headlines and later legislative changes were reported as prompting temporary buying spikes. Dealers surveyed by Cox Automotive were described as very pessimistic about the year ahead. Key facts: - U.S. auto sales for 2025 came in at about 16.3 million, up roughly 2% from 2024, according to Edmunds.com. - Cox Automotive projects 2026 sales near 15.8 million, while Edmunds projects about 16.0 million. - Early 2025 announcements of large tariff increases and a later phase-out of a $7,500 EV tax credit were followed by noticeable short-term surges in purchases. - Ford reported final 2025 sales of 2.2 million, up 6% from 2024 and its best year since 2019. - Average transaction prices for new vehicles in 2025 approached $50,000, compared with under $35,000 less than a decade earlier. - Analysts cite tepid consumer confidence, a slowing job market, and a split "K-shaped" economy as factors for a possible pullback, partly offset by lower interest rates. Summary: Sales are expected to be modestly lower in 2026, reflecting softer consumer confidence and high vehicle prices that have put new cars out of reach for some buyers. Industry forecasts place 2026 volumes near 15.8–16.0 million. Undetermined at this time.