Chinese refiners likely to shift from Venezuelan to Iranian crude

Traders and analysts say Chinese independent refiners are expected to turn to heavy crude from Iran and other sources after Venezuelan shipments to China stopped; barrels already at sea could cover about 75 days of Chinese demand.

Traders and analysts report that Chinese independent refiners, known as teapots, are expected to replace Venezuelan heavy crude with supplies from Iran and other sources after Venezuelan shipments to China were halted. U.S. President Donald Trump said Caracas and Washington agreed to export up to $2 billion of Venezuelan crude to the United States after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. That arrangement is reported to have reduced Venezuelan supply available to China. The world's largest crude importer has been a buyer of discounted sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Key facts: - China imported about 389,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil in 2025, roughly 4% of its seaborne crude imports, according to Kpler data. - Loadings for Asia at Venezuela's main ports have stopped since Jan. 1, and at least a dozen sanctioned vessels that loaded in December departed with roughly 12 million barrels, Reuters reported. - Venezuelan crude already aboard ships in Asia is reported to be sufficient to cover roughly 75 days of Chinese demand, Kpler senior analyst Xu Muyu said. - Traders and analysts say teapots are likely to switch to Russian and Iranian feedstocks in March and April, and Iranian Heavy is reported to be available at about a $10 per barrel discount to ICE Brent. - Sellers were offering Venezuelan Merey for prompt delivery at discounts near $10–$11 per barrel to ICE Brent, though trade has largely come to a standstill. Summary: The immediate supply effect is tempered by barrels already in floating storage, which limits short-term pressure on alternatives. Traders report that independent refiners are expected to shift toward Russian and Iranian heavy crude in March–April, while broader market adjustments and sourcing decisions remain undetermined at this time.