People are betting millions on invasions and regime changes

An Investopedia scan found more than $110 million wagered across 20 geopolitically linked contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi, and a Polymarket question about a possible U.S. invasion of Venezuela has generated over $10.5 million in trading volume.

Prediction markets are seeing increased activity around geopolitical questions. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi list event contracts tied to possible invasions, strikes, and leadership changes. Trading on those contracts has risen alongside ordinary markets like sports and stock-index outcomes. The trend reflects heightened public attention to developments in places such as Venezuela, Iran, and the Middle East. Key details: - An Investopedia scan of 20 popular geopolitically linked bets on Polymarket and Kalshi found more than $110 million in wagers. - A Polymarket contract asking whether the U.S. will invade Venezuela has generated over $10.5 million in trading volume. - A Polymarket question about whether Israel will strike Iran showed about $1.4 million in trading volume. - A Polymarket contract tied to whether Iran’s Supreme Leader would leave office by June 30 saw perceived odds rise to over 30% from around 19% in late December. Summary: Market activity has concentrated substantial sums on conflict-linked and leadership-change questions, increasing visibility of those possible outcomes. Undetermined at this time.