Copper squeeze could intensify as AI and defense spending increase, S&P says

S&P Global projects global copper demand will rise about 50% to roughly 42 million metric tons by 2040 while mine output may peak near 33 million tons around 2030, creating a potential 10‑million‑ton gap.

An S&P Global study finds rising demand from artificial intelligence, data centers and higher defense spending is likely to tighten copper supplies. The report projects global demand rising about 50% to roughly 42 million metric tons by 2040. It also says mine production may peak near 33 million tons around 2030 as ore quality falls and new projects face delays. Key points: - S&P projects copper demand to reach about 42 million metric tons by 2040, roughly a 50% increase from current levels. - New demand tied to AI infrastructure, data centers and defense spending could add about 4 million tons by 2040. - Global mine production is expected to peak near 33 million tons in 2030, which the study says could leave a potential shortfall of about 10 million tons after recycling gains. - The report notes recycling could more than double to around 10 million tons and that long development timelines, permitting and concentrated supply chains limit rapid supply expansion. Summary: The study indicates a widening gap between projected copper demand and constrained mine supply that could tighten markets and increase strain on supply chains. Undetermined at this time.