La Niña will persist this winter, with El Niño possible later

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says La Niña will continue to influence U.S. weather through this winter, with a 75% chance of a shift to ENSO‑neutral by March and a 61% chance of El Niño developing by late summer.

Motorists navigated treacherous roads as heavy, localized lake‑effect snow and squalls struck central New York this winter. Government forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said in a Jan. 8 report that La Niña will continue to influence U.S. weather through the remainder of winter. La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a natural climate cycle that affects U.S. temperature and precipitation patterns. Forecasters say conditions are likely to shift to ENSO‑neutral in spring and summer, and there are growing chances of El Niño forming later in the year. Key developments: - The Climate Prediction Center reports La Niña is expected to persist through winter and will influence U.S. weather in the near term. - There is a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO‑neutral conditions from January through March, and ENSO‑neutral is likely to persist into late spring. - The report gives a 61% chance of El Niño developing by late summer. - Typical La Niña impacts include colder, snowier conditions for the Northwest and drier conditions for much of the Southern states, with the Southeast and Mid‑Atlantic often warmer than average in La Niña winters. - Forecasters noted the "spring predictability barrier," meaning model skill is lower in spring, and they did not issue an El Niño Watch at this time. - The appearance of El Niño could affect the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season; historically, El Niño years have been associated with quieter Atlantic seasons. Summary: La Niña is forecast to continue shaping regional winter weather in the United States while forecasters expect a likely shift to ENSO‑neutral by spring and an increased chance of El Niño later in the year. That potential shift could influence seasonal patterns and the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, but the timing and strength of any El Niño event remain undetermined at this time.