Labor market chart may signal rising recession risk.

December's payrolls rose by 50,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.4%; analysts point to the Beveridge curve, a falling job vacancy rate (about 4.6%) and a negative jobs‑workers gap as signs that unemployment could rise if conditions worsen.

December's nonfarm payrolls showed 50,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate ticked to 4.4% from 4.5%. Economists are focusing on the Beveridge curve, which relates unemployment to the job vacancy rate, because recent moves in that relationship can precede faster rises in unemployment. The job vacancy rate has fallen from its 2022–23 peak to about 4.6%, and some analysts say other measures now point to greater labor‑market fragility. Key indicators: - December nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.4%, down from 4.5%. - The job vacancy rate has declined to around 4.6%, and shifts along the Beveridge curve are being cited as a signal that unemployment could move higher if openings continue to drop. - The jobs‑workers gap has been reported as negative, meaning there are more workers than total jobs, and the Conference Board's labor differential is trending in a direction that has historically accompanied rising unemployment. - Hiring and layoff rates have been low recently, which has kept unemployment range‑bound, but some economists warn that a modest increase in layoffs could lead to a quicker rise in unemployment. Summary: These measures have led some economists to describe recession risk as elevated because the labor market appears more fragile than in prior cycles. Observers note that current readings—particularly the Beveridge curve movement and a negative jobs‑workers gap—could presage faster unemployment growth if job openings continue to fall. Undetermined at this time.