Prediction markets resemble gambling and raise questions for Congress

The article reports that prediction-market sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow wide betting on politics and other events, and it cites a reported case in which a user made large gains after placing bets before Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's arrest.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have become more prominent in the United States and are being used for wagers on politics, sports, and other events. The article reports a case in which a user placed about $33,000 in bets before Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's arrest and later had reported gains exceeding $436,000. Platform leaders describe their products as futures contracts rather than gambling and say they prohibit insider trading. The combination of large bets and broad availability has prompted discussion about regulation and ethics. Key points: - The article reports a user placed large wagers before and after Maduro's arrest, with reported gains rising from nearly $33,000 to over $436,000. - Operators say their services are structured as futures markets and that they prohibit insider trading, according to the article. - These platforms operate across all 50 states and attracted heavy activity around the 2024 election, with large sums traded. - Some lawmakers, including Rep. Ritchie Torres, have raised concerns about insider information, while the article characterizes Congress as generally unprepared to regulate these markets. Summary: Prediction markets have entered mainstream use and drawn scrutiny after high-profile bets and rapid growth in trading activity. The article reports platform statements against insider trading and notes some legislative interest, but the path for federal regulation is undetermined at this time.