CPI inflation report due Tuesday may show a slight uptick

Forecasters expect the December Consumer Price Index to show a 2.7% year-over-year increase, with core CPI also at 2.7%; some economists say November's reading may have been understated because BLS price collection was delayed by the government shutdown.

A Bureau of Labor Statistics report on consumer prices is due Tuesday. Forecasters surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal expect headline CPI to rise 2.7% year‑over‑year for December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also forecast at 2.7%, up from 2.6% in November. Economists note tariff-driven price pressure even as housing cost growth has slowed. Key facts: - The survey cited expects headline CPI at +2.7% for the 12 months through December and core CPI at +2.7%. - The November CPI report may have been unusually soft because the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown delayed BLS price surveys until Nov. 13, overlapping Black Friday activity. - Wells Fargo economists said many of the November data distortions should be unwound in December's report. - Forecasters generally expect inflation to ease over the year as rent increases slow and a faltering job market limits wage-driven pressure. - Analysts continue to note tariffs as a source of upward price pressure in recent months. Summary: The December CPI release will help determine whether November's softness reflected data-collection timing or a broader change in inflation momentum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish the official figures on Tuesday, and economists will compare the released data with their forecasts to assess near-term inflation trends.