Subaru: Is it too late to assess the stock after its strong five-year run?

Subaru last closed at ¥3,396 and shows a five-year return of about 98.7%; the article's DCF model estimates an intrinsic value of ¥2,327.03 per share, implying roughly 45.9% overvaluation on that metric.

Subaru's recent share performance and valuation are the focus of the article. The piece reports a last close of ¥3,396 and lists returns across several horizons, including about 98.7% over five years. It places these figures in the context of industry themes such as electric vehicle adoption, supply chain resilience, and changing consumer preferences. The article applies multiple valuation checks and gives Subaru a score of 3 out of 6, then describes a DCF-based estimate for further context. Key figures and findings: - Last closing price reported at ¥3,396 and multi-period returns including 0.1% over 7 days, −3.4% over 30 days, −1.4% year to date, 33.1% over 1 year, 90.7% over 3 years, and 98.7% over 5 years. - The article's two-stage free cash flow to equity DCF uses a latest twelve-month free cash flow of ¥263,419.85m and projects free cash flow of ¥120,335m for the year to March 2030. - The DCF calculation in the article produces an estimated intrinsic value of ¥2,327.03 per share. - Compared with the reported market price, that DCF view implies Subaru is about 45.9% overvalued. - The article also notes sector-level debates around EV adoption, supply chain resilience, and shifting consumer preferences, and gives Subaru a 3/6 valuation checklist score. Summary: The article's DCF model suggests Subaru may be materially above that model's estimate of intrinsic value, while other valuation checks yield a middling score of 3 out of 6. How market participants will weigh these valuation signals against broader auto-sector trends is undetermined at this time.