World Bank sees resilient global growth in 2026 despite tariffs

The World Bank raised its 2026 GDP outlook slightly from last June and said growth remains concentrated in advanced economies and too weak to reduce extreme poverty.

The World Bank released its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report, saying the global economy has been more resilient than expected and lifting its 2026 forecast modestly from last June. The report notes that stronger U.S. growth accounted for much of the upward revision despite tariff-driven trade disruptions. It warns, however, that gains are uneven and overall growth is not strong enough to cut extreme poverty. The bank also highlighted slower momentum in many emerging and developing economies. Key findings: - Global output is forecast to slow to 2.6% in 2026 from 2.7% in 2025, and to edge back to 2.7% in 2027. - The 2026 global GDP forecast is up 0.2 percentage points from the June projection, and the 2025 forecast is up 0.4 percentage points. - About two-thirds of the upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected U.S. growth; the World Bank projects U.S. GDP at 2.2% in 2026 versus 2.1% in 2025. - The report notes an import surge to beat tariffs in early 2025 depressed U.S. growth that year, and says larger tax incentives will support growth in 2026 while tariffs weigh on investment and consumption. - Growth in emerging market and developing economies is forecast to slow to 4.0% in 2026 from 4.2% in 2025; excluding China, 2026 growth for that group is 3.7%. - China is projected to slow to 4.4% in 2026 from 4.9% in 2025, with both figures revised up by 0.4 percentage points from June due to fiscal stimulus and higher exports outside the U.S. Summary: The World Bank describes a modest upward revision to near-term growth driven largely by the United States, but cautions that the gains are concentrated in advanced economies and overall growth remains too weak to reduce extreme poverty. Undetermined at this time.