OpenAI faces a critical year as investors focus on profitability

Analysts say 2026 could be make-or-break for OpenAI as investor attention shifts to returns; the company has reported large cash burn while preparing for a possible IPO.

OpenAI is under heightened investor scrutiny as analysts and banks say 2026 could be a make-or-break year for companies that primarily sell AI models. The debate centers on whether commercial revenue, pricing power, and lower inference costs can keep pace with rising compute needs. The company reported rising revenue but has also been described by some analysts as having significant cash burn. OpenAI has made large capital commitments and is widely expected to pursue an initial public offering within the next year or so. Key facts: - Deutsche Bank and other analysts described 2026 as potentially "make or break" for model-selling AI firms and highlighted OpenAI in their notes. - Analysts cited a reported cash burn of $9 billion last year and projected as much as $17 billion for this year. - OpenAI's finance chief reported revenue of more than $20 billion last year, up from $6 billion in 2024. - The company has committed to sizable data center projects reported as $1.4 trillion and holds multi-year capacity agreements with strategic partners. - Recent developments include a report that Apple opted for Google’s technology for some AI products and OpenAI’s announcement that it will soon test advertising in ChatGPT. Summary: Investor scrutiny is shifting from sheer scale to returns and unit economics, which raises pressure on business models that rely on selling foundation models. OpenAI is widely expected to pursue an IPO late this year or in early 2027, and market reaction to its revenue, costs, and capital commitments will influence its near-term trajectory.