Global aid cuts could lead to 23 million deaths by 2030, study estimates

A Lancet Global Health analysis found that past official development assistance was associated with large reductions in mortality and estimates that current and proposed aid cuts could result in millions of additional deaths worldwide by 2030.

A study published in The Lancet Global Health warns that reductions in global aid could reverse two decades of mortality improvements. Researchers from the Institute of Collective Health at the Federal University of Bahia analyzed data from 93 low- and middle-income countries. They linked higher levels of official development assistance to sizable declines in overall and child mortality from 2002 to 2021. Key findings: - The analysis covered 93 low- and middle-income countries, representing about 6.3 billion people. - Higher official development assistance was associated with a 23% reduction in age-standardized all-cause mortality and a 39% reduction in deaths among children younger than 5 years between 2002 and 2021. - Forecasting models estimate that current defunding trends could result in about 9.4 million additional deaths worldwide by 2030, and a severe defunding scenario could raise projected deaths to roughly 22.6 million. - The report notes recent policy shifts, including the dismantling of USAID in 2025 and announced reductions from major donor countries, and it cites projections of further declines in official development assistance through 2026. Summary: The study indicates that reductions in development and humanitarian assistance could substantially slow or reverse gains in preventing avoidable deaths, with large impacts projected by 2030. The largest historical declines were in deaths from communicable diseases and in child mortality. Undetermined at this time.