Antarctica faces irreversible damage in worst-case climate scenario

A study in Frontiers in Environmental Science finds that a very high‑emissions future could cause irreversible damage to the Antarctic Peninsula, while a low‑emissions path would largely avoid the worst harms; the researchers say rapid emissions reductions this decade would be decisive.

A new study published in Frontiers in Environmental Science models how different greenhouse gas pathways would affect the Antarctic Peninsula and concludes that a very high‑emissions future could produce irreversible changes. The research was led by Newcastle University glaciologist Bethan Davies and used CMIP6 climate model data to compare low, medium‑high, and very high emissions scenarios. The Antarctic Peninsula is already warming faster than much of the planet and is showing early signs of ecological and glacial strain. The study emphasizes that choices over the next decade will strongly influence which pathway unfolds. Key findings: - The study analyzed three emissions pathways using CMIP6 model output and was led by Bethan Davies of Newcastle University. - In the low‑emissions scenario (about 1.8°C global warming by 2100) the Antarctic Peninsula would avoid the most severe impacts, with limited winter sea‑ice loss and small contributions to sea level rise. - A medium‑high pathway (about 3.6°C global warming by 2100) would warm the Peninsula by roughly 3.4°C, bring more days above freezing and more rain, accelerate glacier retreat, and disrupt native species such as Adélie penguins. - A very high emissions pathway (about 4.4°C global warming by 2100) could trigger ice shelf collapse and major, potentially irreversible changes if key tipping points are crossed, according to the authors. Summary: The study notes the world is currently on track for a medium‑ to medium‑high emissions future, which would increase risks to the Antarctic Peninsula and contribute to sea level rise. Undetermined at this time.